Ukraine War News: Senior officials in Russia have been discussing ways to get rid of Vladimir Putin. They believe that the Russian leader will not be able to survive the war in Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s chief of defence intelligence, there are ‘active discussions’ about deposing Putin.
Despite the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, President Poroshenko has been focused on rallying support for Ukraine. He is pressing foreign leaders to send more weapons to Kyiv and raise the costs for Russia. But his message is clear: Putin may not survive the war, and the Ukrainian people are suffering. Some of their young men and women have been killed in the war.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told reporters earlier this week that the Russians are preparing for a full-scale assault on Kiev. He also said that Russia is moving military reinforcements into the city and preparing defences. He believes that Russia’s top commander was trying to provoke Ukraine into a costly urban battle.
Ukraine’s military commander, Roman Kovalenko, was forced to make a choice between survival or death. His military had already lost 9,000 men in six months, and 7,000 are missing. Meanwhile, Russia has lost about 15,000 troops. While it’s hard to quantify how many Russian soldiers have died, the fact that the Russian air force has dominated the skies over the region of Chernihiv is alarming. The Ukrainian military commanders were in desperate need of more modern weapons, and they pleaded for more Western weapons.
Ukraine and Russia are continuing to face setbacks on the Ukrainian battlefield. As Ukraine is now attempting to retake the disputed city of Kherson by the end of November, Russia has been unable to recover Crimea. Russia has claimed that Ukraine ‘launched a’massive’ drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.
Despite the growing pressure, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is tragic and shocking, revealing the aggressive intentions of Putin and the potential for militarizing Europe. Putin launched the invasion in full knowledge that the West would respond with sanctions and reinforce the eastern flank of NATO. He likely intends to topple the Zelensky government in Kyiv and install a puppet regime of Russia.
Russia’s military action in Ukraine has failed to unite the country, but it has strengthened the existing divisions in Russian society. Consequently, it is hard to find a consensus amongst Putin’s supporters.
In addition to redrawing its forces from Central Europe, the Russian President has also spoken of pulling Ukraine back into the Russian fold. This would undermine the European security architecture that was built since 1991. Such recklessness could lead Putin to invade Ukraine, which in turn could threaten a NATO member state. Indeed, four NATO member states border Ukraine, and any of them could be exposed to new vulnerabilities. In addition, Russia could also flex its muscle in the Baltics.
The war has been going on for eight months and Russia is doing its best to contain it. The war has affected global markets, with prices for key commodities rising to record levels. Furthermore, the conflict has left uncertainty over energy supplies. Russia, traditionally a major supplier of fossil fuels to the EU, has suspended gas deliveries to several member states. Despite these developments, the EU has responded swiftly to ensure an adequate supply in all countries. The war has also affected agri-food production, making the world’s food crisis worse.
Zelensky saw the situation differently. He said that if he were to quit his post, he would cede the power center to the Russians and that his government would collapse almost overnight. He did not mention his intentions to cling to the presidency, but he suspected some of his foreign interlocutors wanted the conflict to end quickly. If this happens, the Ukrainian government would effectively surrender to Russia.
Despite the military victory, Russia is not able to take Kyiv. The Ukrainian military has successfully counterattacked and fought a fierce defensive campaign. But the transition from defense to full-scale counteroffensive would pose a formidable challenge for Kiev. It would likely become a military stalemate that lasts months.
While this is a grim scenario, a negotiated settlement is still an option for both sides. Senior officials in Russia and Ukraine are ‘discussing’ ways to end the conflict. Last month, Zelenskyy offered to give up Kyiv’s ambitions to join NATO and accept neutrality, but his Russian counterpart did not take it up.
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